06.05.1999
Tories in disarray
As the political map of Britain is being redrawn - through Blair’s constitutional revolution from above - the Conservative Party is undergoing a deep and far-reaching crisis. The ‘public versus private’ furore of the last two weeks is a symptom of this.
The requirement of big capital for ever closer European integration has split the Tories into two hostile camps: on the one hand, the pro-EU minority, reflecting the needs of the most efficient, most dynamic sections of the bourgeoisie; and, on the other hand, the Eurosceptic majority, by and large reflecting the needs of the more inward-looking.
William Hague has attempted to paper over these cracks by stifling debate on the central question of Europe. The alternative - adopting an openly anti-euro ‘never, never, never’ line - would certainly secure the Tories a place on the political spectrum, ‘Save sterling’ would provide the ‘big idea’ capable of attracting a minority of the population. But it would make the party totally useless in the eyes of the big bourgeoisie and virtually unelectable.
Margaret Thatcher not only united the Conservative Party behind her vision of unfettered capital and of a union-busting, private enterprise Britain. She also struck a resonance with sections of the population, not least the private sector middle class and the upper echelon of the working class (stocks and shares and council house sales helped). Hague seems incapable of such strategic thinking. By contrast Tony Blair is as certain as was Thatcher of the road he is travelling. New Labour is in the process of implementing sweeping constitutional changes which, despite Tory protestations, complement or complete what Thatcher began - replacing the old post-World War II consensus with one fitted for the post-Cold War world.
Paradoxically from the Tory point of view, the whole of British politics has been pushed to the right, so that privatising, welfare-slashing and tax-cutting now goes unchallenged in the mainstream. Blair has stolen the Tories’ ground. Yet, confounding leftish common sense, New Labour enjoys unprecedented midterm popularity ratings.
However, paralysed by the fundamental strategic division over Europe, the Tories have no answer and have been reduced to thinking up ‘distinctive’ policies for their own sake. At a time when New Labour is openly seeking private-public partnerships in all areas, including health and education, Conservative deputy leader Peter Lilley caused uproar within his party by questioning the Thatcherite mantra of a capitalism, virtually unrestricted by government, being able to operate in every sphere. Lilley declared that health and education were “intrinsically unsuited” for the operation of the market. He said that the Tories had not been given the credit for funding these areas “in practice”, because they had been thought to be against public services “in theory”.
This statement, intended as a rejection of the ‘worst excesses’ of Thatcherism - a symbolic U-turn, whereby the party could ‘concede and move on’ - left many Tory rank and filers, as well as grandees, bewildered and angry. Yet this was the ‘toned down’ version. Michael Simmonds, a party worker, leaked details of the changes to the original draft, and paid for it with the loss of his job.
Taken aback by the reaction to Lilley’s speech, party leaders attempted to play down its significance. But that was not an easy task. The claim that the speech was all part of a “seamless web” of Tory policy dating back to the 70s did not sit easily with the briefing given to journalists prior to Lilley’s intervention, that it was “our version of clause four”. Michael Ancram, the party chair, tried to claim that Lilley had been “misinterpreted”. But, somewhat in contradiction, he complained that the deputy leader had tried to shift Tory policy without sufficient consultation.
Ancram later admitted that the whole affair had been a “massive and inexcusable” mistake. He was to set up a review to ensure “far better communication and presentation”. This slightly misses the point. It is hardly useful to call for a change of packaging when you cannot decide what should be wrapped up inside it. And attempting such a rethink of policy in the middle of an election campaign is not a good idea either.
No wonder the Tories were thrown into turmoil. There were rumblings inside the party against the hapless leadership of Hague, who may have to sack his deputy in order to survive. Hague’s leadership was being questioned to such an extent that shadow home secretary Norman Fowler issued a two-page document extolling his virtues in a vain attempt to stop the rot. After two years of Blair’s government, the Conservatives are sliding even further in the polls. A recent survey showed that Blair is preferred to Hague by a majority of Tory voters.
Of course no such drastic leadership changes will be contemplated until after the current round of elections. After this week’s local, Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly voting, Hague’s troubles could intensify. And a further slump in the June 10 European poll will surely seal his eventual fate. But the problem for the Tories is that there is no obvious taker to fill Hague’s shoes at the moment. No-one wants to be at the helm if the Conservative ship is to be sunk in a second successive general election Labour landslide in a couple of years time.
After that Blair aims to finish off the Tories through the introduction of proportional representation. PR will spark off a fundamental realignment of British politics through allowing significant minorities to split in the knowledge that they will not necessarily be cast into the electoral wilderness. Blair knows that in return for a permanent Lab-Lib coalition he risks losing his left wing. But the Tories will almost certainly be hit by a much more devastating schism (creating the possibility if needed of a pro-EU Lab-Lib-Con coalition - and leaving the Hague rump as permanent outsiders).
These fundamental changes will provide us with an opportunity too. The Tories may now feel the need to make noises in favour of ‘public service’, but there is no doubt that the rightward shift of mainstream British politics has left a vacuum. If only it had the self-belief, the left could organise to fill that space.
Alan Fox