15.05.1997

Down but not out

In the period following the May 1 cull the Conservative Party is striving to re-establish itself as a credible governing force in British politics.

Of the 164 Tory survivors of the general election debacle, six contenders have emerged to take over the party leadership. The one all-pervasive issue around which battle lines are being drawn is Europe, with the two poles of Conservative thought represented by the pro-European Kenneth Clarke and the extreme sceptic, John Redwood.

However, a prime consideration will be the need for a leader capable of providing the unity so clearly lacking during John Major’s term as prime minister. It was precisely the Tories’ deep divisions over Europe which in the end caused influential sections of the establishment to back New Labour. The underlying paradox of the desire to preserve the ever declining independent influence of British capital and the need for closer European integration in order to do so is expressed most clearly within the Conservative Party.

Ironically the Tories’ unaccustomed role as Her Majesty’s Opposition will help to smooth over the divisions. The pro-Europe moves that most Tory leaders know are necessary for British capital will be enacted by the Labour government, allowing the Conservatives to hurl accusations of treachery and unitedly accuse Blair of selling our Britain’s vital interests.

Thus whoever wins the leadership election will turn out to be a Eurosceptic. Even Clarke would play the chauvinist card for all its worth, content and relieved that it is the Labour Party who will feel the backlash of popular anger at the austerity measures it will be forced to implement.

For that reason the Conservatives may well opt for neither of the two wings, preferring a candidate who can cohere all sections in the short term. But there is a complication: the Labour landslide and the Tory wipe-out in Scotland and Wales has left large areas of the party disenfranchised under the existing leadership electoral system, where only MPs are entitled to a vote. That is why calls to widen the electorate have increased and have been most pronounced in Scotland and Wales. If the Conservative Party decides to succumb to this pressure, that could result in a victory for the right at the expense of short-term unity.

Now that the general election is over, the national aspirations which have welled up within all sections of Scottish society have had their effect on Scottish Tories too. Already there is a strong move to drop opposition to Labour’s devolution plans. Sixteen out of the 38 Scottish Conservative constituency parties that responded to a survey wanted to change the party’s name in Scotland. Eight preferred the ‘Scottish Union Party’, which expresses a desire for a federal relationship amongst British Tories.

Whatever difficulties the Tories are now in, nobody should underestimate their capacity to adapt to the changed circumstances. It is by no means automatic that discontent with Labour will be reflected in a mass turn to the left. Britain still has a two-party system and in the long term the Conservatives remain the preferred party of the British bourgeoisie.

Peter Manson