24.05.2007

Plaid Cymru divides over Tory coalition

Cameron Richards reports on the political crisis in Wales

With the deadline for forming the next devolved administration now less than a week away, all four main parties in the Welsh national assembly are desperately trying to take a share in the new government. As the Weekly Worker goes to print, the talks not only between the parties, but significantly within the parties too, are finely balanced.

Most dramatically, within days both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats pulled out of negotiations with Labour (which has 26 of the 60 assembly seats), and this seemed to leave a distinct possibility that a rainbow coalition of Plaid (15 seats), the Lib Dems (six) and the Tories (12) would be stitched together. But then the Lib Dem executive overturned the recommendation of leader Mike German and committed the party to opposition rather than enter any deal with the Conservatives.

By contrast, the leader of Plaid, Ieuan Wyn Jones, fancying the job of first minister, was the most eager to organise an anti-Labour coalition, including with the Tories - indeed a Tory-Plaid minority administration is still possible if the Lib Dems abstain.

On one level this love match between the Welsh nationalists and the Conservatives is not so odd as it first appears. After all, the manifestos of all four parties on many issues were largely similar. Nevertheless, belatedly the left wing of Plaid finally came out to oppose the marriage of this odd couple.

Until May 21, the left of Plaid had remained strangely tight-lipped about a deal with the Tories, no doubt not wanting to jeopardise Plaid?s horse-trading with the other parties. However, once a majority of Plaid assembly members voted to support a rainbow coalition, four AMs - Leanne Wood, Helen Mary Jones, Nerys Evans and Bethan Jenkins - came out against the deal. The four have the support of Plaid?s deputy president, Jill Evans MEP.

This goes to the heart of contradictions within the cross-class formation that is Plaid. One wing, represented by its leader, is mainly located in the Welsh-speaking heartlands of semi-rural Wales and is essentially politically liberal and pro-capitalist. The other wing, the left nationalists, is located primarily in industrial south Wales and sees itself as the leftwing alternative to New Labour. Any deal with the Tories would shatter the socialist pretensions that the left nationalists have for the party.

Although superficially united over the national question, this issue takes on different forms for the two wings. Ieuan Wyn Jones is no Alex Salmond and rarely articulates a vision of an independent Wales. For him the language question remains a crucial element of his politics. This, perhaps, explains why he can envisage getting into bed with the historic party of British imperialism.

The language question, of course, looms less large for the left nationalist wing and its dream of socialism in one principality. Its main aim is to achieve a Welsh parliament with similar powers to Scotland, as a springboard to an eventual independent and socialist Wales (for them the English working class has been bought off by imperialism). In a statement, issued on behalf of the rebel AMs, comrade Wood said: ?It is with regret that we do not agree with the decision made in our group meeting today. We respectfully disagree. We fought this election on a platform to deliver a proper parliament for our nation. A deal with the Conservatives would undermine the chance of delivering that goal.?

This wing recognises that Plaid is far less likely to broker a deal over the national question with the Tories than with Labour. Which is not to say that they are not also instinctively repelled at the prospect of doing deals with the vermin that make up the Tory ranks in the assembly, but it puts into context their opposition.

The question is, what course will the leftwing rebellion take now? Were the four rebel AMs to vote against a deal with the Tories, that would be enough to scupper it. A minority Labour administration under Rhodri Morgan would then be the most likely scenario, although there is a chance that new elections might have to be called. Before that vote takes place, Plaid faces two crucial meetings. On May 24, the executive council was due to meet. Then on May 26, the larger national council meets in Aberystwyth to ratify any deal. The NC could turn out to be a bloodbath.

Two alternative scenarios could prevent this. One scenario is if Wyn Jones pulls back from the brink and reneges on his deal with the Tories, knowing he could not carry all his AMs with him. The other is if the left wing promises to abide by the decision if it loses at Saturday?s NC. Jill Evans had hinted that she would have accepted a rainbow coalition if it won majority support, whilst Bethan Jenkins had gone further, explicitly stating that hers would be a revolt on its knees.

However, the duty of the left wing is to rebel against the rotten Plaid leadership - if, that is, its relationship to socialism is anything other than platonic. They must fight at Aberystwyth. If a deal with the Tories is still on the cards, they must make it clear they will break with the Plaid whip rather than vote for it. To hide under the cover of a majority vote might make them seem good, loyal Plaid members, but they would be shown to be rotten socialists. They must go onto the offensive against the very notion of the deal the leadership wanted.

This might well have been the equivalent of a 1914 moment for the Plaid left. Let us hope that Leanne Wood and others, if it had come to it, would have refused to toe the party line. To do otherwise would have been to cross the altogether far more important class line.