24.10.1996

Crystal ball gazing

Around the left

It is a widely held belief that Marxism is a ‘deterministic’ ideology. At least, this is what is commonly taught in the politics departments of schools and universities across the country, if not the world. In other words, Marxists are supposed to think that certain things are ‘inevitable’ - history is (when it comes to the crunch) on our side and the dawn of socialism/communism is certain.

This is, of course, a thoroughly false view of Marxism and a parody of its real content. However, if you look at the views of some groups which claim loyalty to Marxism, you can see how such a ‘misunderstanding’ can arise. This brand of Marxism - the ‘science’ of crystal ball gazing - does indeed dominate large swathes of the revolutionary left.

One of the worst offenders is Militant Labour, which specialises in rash predictions about the future. It has recently been speculating about the Tory Party splitting right down the middle if Blair is elected, with one half forming a rightwing, nationalist party. According to Militant, “If Labour is elected the Tories are more than likely to split quite quickly” (October 18). It is never explained exactly why, or how, this is going to happen - it is just taken for granted.

Even more wildly, Militant goes on to predict that the result of this split will “be a ‘one-nation’ Tory Party and an English National Party”. How does Hannah Sell, the author of this article, know with such conviction that this is the way of the future? Are there no other scenarios? Apparently not, as comrade Sell informs us: “If they succeed in holding together for longer, the right of the party will probably gain even more control than they have at present.”

There is another possibility. That the sheer shock of being out of office will act to unite the Tories, as both the left and right huddle together against the common enemy - the Blair government. But comrade Sell prefers to extrapolate feverishly, and worry instead about the “threat” that “an English National Party” represents. 

This fondness for futurology can be detected in ML’s journal, Socialism Today, where we are cheerfully told that, “The working class has not suffered a devastating defeat, as happened with the victory of fascism in the inter-war period ... a rebound is inevitable on the basis of capitalism” (October).

While such ‘optimism’ may help to raise the morale of ML members, it does not advance the long-term interest of the working class, which requires a scientific study of society - and, most importantly, active intervention to make things happen, rather than passively waiting for events to unfold.

Don Preston