16.01.2025
Turmoil and divisions
Far from HTS bringing stability, things continue to fragment. Yassamine Mather looks at the continued hold of rebel groups and the frustrations of neighbouring Arab states
Following the fall of Bashar al‑Assad, the western media seems no longer interested in Syria. It is assumed all is well, but the reality is somewhat different.
The country remains divided … but more so. The Israelis have advanced well into Syrian territory and do not seem to have any intention of leaving. Thousands of Syrians now live under occupation in areas partially under Zionist control, fuelling widespread anxiety in the local communities about the duration of their stay. Initially, the Zionist state claimed Israeli troops would temporarily occupy only buffer zones. That is no longer the case and there are reports of local protests. Israeli forces have detained several residents and fired upon demonstrators.
As for the Kurdish area, it will only survive until the Americans decide they no longer need the Kurds. This week, Syrian Kurdish media reported intense clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish backed Syrian National Army near the strategic Tishreen Dam and Qaraqosh Bridge. Both are located near Manbij, a town in Aleppo province. There were also reports of the burial ceremony of 39 SDF troops, 30 of whom had died in the fighting around the Tishreen dam during December and January.
Criticism
Iranian and Turkish supporters of the SDF get very upset when we criticise its total dependence on US aid and military support. Apparently this stems from our Fars chauvinism. As I wrote in 2019 about the SDF’s political wing, the YPG:
The YPG [People’s Protection Units] is closely associated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a Stalinist organisation based in Turkey, which used to define itself as Marxist-Leninist, with the aim of overthrowing the Turkish state. But in more recent times it has moderated its position and calls for the establishment of an independent Kurdish state headed by itself … In early 2015, when it became clear that Syrian Kurds were seeking US air support, we warned that this was a slippery slope that would lead to the organisation becoming a tool of the United States.1
We are told that facing attacks by Islamic State and Syria, they have no choice but to rely on US support. I am afraid that will lose them support among revolutionary forces in Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria, as well as the rest of the region. There is no short cut to defeating all the region’s reactionary forces - Islamic State, Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Islamic Republic, the new regime in Damascus, etc - nor to building a viable force to oppose imperialist interventions. In reality, the SDF’s actions in accepting US aid have played into the hands of our enemies.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham might be in control in Damascus, but is facing mounting challenges. The attempt of its members to appear as ‘modern jihadists’ is not going well with former allies of the Islamic State. The refusal of its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, to shake the hand of the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, which was far from endearing them to fundamentalists, has created additional controversy. Why was Baerbock not wearing a headscarf? Why wasn’t she wearing ‘modest’ clothes? ...
According to the website Syrian Observer, the strategic rebranding of the HTS Islamist militants has caused many problems:
The incident with Germany’s foreign minister highlights the limits of Ahmad al-Sharaa’s evolution. His refusal to shake hands with a woman is emblematic of a broader ambiguity in his ideological shift. While he has taken steps to distance himself from his Jihadist past, his actions and rhetoric suggest that these changes are more superficial than substantive.
Hard-line Islamists have also condemned the arrest of a “veteran mujahid”, Abu Sufyan al-Jablawi, purportedly on accusations of being a “fanatic terrorist”, in Syria’s Latakia province. Al-Jablawi is not, in fact, a notable jihadist figure. Still, reports of his arrest in the city of Jableh, on January 12, provoked outrage amongst hard-line Islamists critical of the new HTS-led government.
Meanwhile, some claimed al‑Jablawi was detained for walking through Jableh whilst bearing a white ‘tawhid’ flag, which is often associated with jihadists. Several hard-line jihadists were among outspoken HTS opponents who voiced their opposition to the arrest. “Al-Jablawi is one of the best mujahidin who did not hesitate or give in during the years of revolution,” wrote Tariq Abd al-Halim.
Abu Yahya al-Shami dismissed the allegations of “extremism” as “fabricated charges”, posting a video purportedly showing al-Jablawi riding a horse, while carrying the same white flag. He also accused the current interim authorities of fabricating a plot by Islamic State to bomb the iconic Sayyida Zainab mosque near Damascus. According to al-Shami, the plot, which was reportedly foiled on January 11, was a deliberate ploy to appear as the protectors of a minority religious sect. The authorities in Damascus claimed they had thwarted an attempt by IS fighters to target the shrine, which had previously been attacked by IS and other armed groups, but remains a significant site of worship for Shia Muslims.
A source within the Damascus regime’s intelligence agency claimed that security forces had successfully prevented the planned bombing and several jihadists were arrested. The interior ministry released photos of four men identified as members of an Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant cell, reportedly apprehended in rural areas near the capital. Additional images displayed confiscated items, including two rifles, three explosive devices and several hand grenades.
Secular Syrians are also expressing concern about the appointment of at least six non-Syrian jihadists, especially in military posts and in the ministry of defence. Sayfiddin Tajibayev, a member of the militant Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad who fought alongside the Tahrir al-Sham against the government of Bashar al-Assad, has been appointed head of the Syrian Ministry of Defence’s operational headquarters. In Tajikistan, he is on a wanted list, accused of “involvement in terrorist acts” and “participation in foreign wars”. Before going to Syria, Tajibayev was a member of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), a parliamentary party designated a terrorist organisation by Tajikistan’s Rahmon regime in 2015 and duly banned.
Other non-Syrians awarded posts in the senior military ranks include an Albanian, an Egyptian and a Jordanian, all of whom received the rank of colonel. Additionally, a Jordanian, a Turk and a member of the Turkistani minority in China were granted the rank of brigadier general.
Ahmad Oudeh
This week we also heard once more about Ahmad Oudeh, once dubbed “Russia’s man in the south”. A controversial figure, accused of involvement in smuggling drugs and fuel, as well as betraying rebels to the regime, Oudeh has, to say the least, a complex history. According to the Arabic Service of the BBC, he fought both IS and Assad’s forces, though he served until recently as commander of the Eighth Brigade of the Syrian Army’s 5th Corps.
As opposition fighters his faction in Dara’a initially received funding from the US-led Military Operations Center and later the United Arab Emirates, but had shifted to Russian largess by 2017.
Oudeh’s brigade drew attention to itself in 2022 during operations against IS, including involvement with the death of its leader, Abu al‑Hasan al-Qurashi. On December 8, amidst warnings of regime collapse, Oudeh and his brigade took parts of Damascus amidst opposition advances. This marked a final break with the agreements with Assad he had entered into under Russian sponsorship. True, his forces soon retreated, citing limited resources. Nonetheless, Oudeh clearly has ongoing ambitions.
Southern Syria remains unstable, with intermittent armed clashes. Along with rumours that the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are “dissatisfied” with the HST regime this raises the possibility about Ahmad Oudeh’s potential role as a ‘national unifier’. He does after all enjoy regional support. This adds another layer of complexity to Syria’s future political landscape.
Iran and Syria
Meanwhile, in Iran the media is keen to report increased violence and instability in Syria, with specific events like the burning of a Christmas tree in a Christian-majority town.
When it comes to an opinion on HTS, different Iranian media outlets associated with different political factions express different views. Conservative publications emphasise HTS’s “terrorist” nature and accuse the group of forced displacement of Syrians, while more ‘moderate’ media outlets suggest HTS might be adapting its strategies, insisting that HTS is not the equivalent of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
On the whole, while Iran is eager to resume diplomatic operations in Syria, security concerns and political uncertainties dominate its approach. The conflicting statements from Iranian officials suggest internal differences on how to handle relations with Syria’s interim authorities.
It was inevitable that the Iranian government, itself constantly under fire for failing to deal adequately with natural disasters, would do its utmost to publicise the failures of US authorities in dealing with wildfires in Los Angeles. A polite response came from government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, who conveyed solidarity in a video, attributing the disaster to climate change and emphasising collective global responsibility.
But other officials linked the disaster to US actions abroad, particularly in Gaza and Ukraine. Vice-president Mohammad Javad Zarif drew parallels between the devastation in California and Gaza, highlighting global solidarity. Hard-line media mocked the official US response, framing the fires as “divine retribution” for supporting Israel and Ukraine. Headlines like “God’s baton” and “Superpower still burning” ridiculed US capabilities, while claims of government mismanagement, resource misallocation and symbolic links between Los Angeles and Gaza dominated coverage.
Conservative papers cited the disaster as proof of their thesis of American decline - which, incidentally, has nothing at all to do with any Marxist thesis on decline!