14.11.2024
Uncertain times
Donald Trump’s appointments give us a clue about what to expect, but nothing more. Meanwhile Arab countries are asserting their independence out of fear of their own people, says Yassamine Mather
Only a few days after Donald Trump’s election, media headlines were telling us that the US justice department had filed charges over an alleged Iranian plot to kill the US president-elect. Far from being ‘breaking news’, this is an old story.
US court records were unsealed on November 8, revealing that Farhad Shakeri, an alleged Iranian agent, was involved in a plot to kill Trump in cooperation with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The reports claim he was tasked with surveillance of Trump and ultimately his assassination. Prosecutors say IRGC officials directed Shakeri to delay the plot if it could not be executed before the election, anticipating Trump’s loss. Shakeri, currently believed to be in Iran, was allegedly coordinating this with two US residents in a broader scheme to target US-based individuals opposed to the Iranian regime. Shakeri, who had previously lived in the US, was deported in 2008, but apparently, from Tehran, he managed to use criminal contacts to further the IRGC’s objectives.
This - following last week’s Israeli claims that Iran was deploying networks of spies in the Zionist state - could be used for justifying another military attack on the country and, of course, Trump’s election means such threats should be taken more seriously.
Targeting
On November 10, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his strong alignment with Trump on the perceived threat, emphasising “shared views on the risks presented by Iran’s Islamic Republic”. Netanyahu also admitted for the first time that Israel, under his directive, was responsible for operations targeting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, despite opposition from defence officials. He mentioned having had three recent calls with Trump to reinforce US-Israel relations, describing these discussions as constructive and important. However, it is not easy to know what Trump thinks and how he will proceed. Some remind us he is unpredictable.
The comments of a BBC reporter in Israel are of some interest:
The area across from the US consulate in Jerusalem humorously named “Déjà Boo” (a play on déjà vu and the idea of re-experiencing something) has become symbolic, as Israelis await a potential second term for Donald Trump as president. Outside the American diplomatic complex, there is a sense of anticipation for what many perceive as a familiar and favourable period, should Trump return to office. During his previous term, Donald Trump garnered significant popularity in Israel by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal - a move Israel strongly supported. Trump also brokered several landmark normalisation agreements between Israel and Arab nations and formally recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, breaking with long-standing US policy and international consensus.1
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, described Trump’s first term as “ideal” from Israel’s perspective. However, he noted that, while Israel hopes for a continuation of this approach, it must remain realistic about Trump’s views and policies. For instance, Trump has historically avoided protracted wars, encouraging Israel to end the Gaza conflict quickly, and has not been a strong advocate of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, opposing moves by some Israeli leaders to annex parts of it.
Such a stance might put Trump at odds with the far-right factions in Netanyahu’s coalition government, who have threatened to bring down the government if policies contrary to their interests are pursued. During the recent Gaza conflict, Netanyahu often balanced American expectations with demands from his coalition partners, generally siding with the latter - an approach that led to occasional tensions with Joe Biden.
Speaking before Trump’s victory, Oren suggests that Netanyahu should adopt a different approach in this second term. If Trump were to instruct Netanyahu to conclude the Gaza conflict within a week, Oren and others have implied, Netanyahu would need to comply.
In terms of Trump’s recent appointments, supporters of ‘regime change from above’ in Iran were disappointed when it was announced that Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo would not hold posts in the new administration. However, none of the current appointees can be considered good news for Iran. If Marco Rubio’s nomination is confirmed, he is expected to approach China with suspicion, if not outright antagonism. He holds a hostile stance toward Iran and Russia, is unenthusiastic about Venezuela, and views Cuba with a mix of regret and bitterness, reflecting the experiences of his parents who left the country. His concern for Gaza and Ukraine, however, appears limited. This will be balanced by Elise Stefanik, who is a staunch supporter of the Zionist state and has also been critical of the UN for the organisation’s “lack of sufficient backing for Israel in its war against Hamas”. Last year she gained prominence for leading congressional hearings about the handling by university presidents of anti-Zionist protests on college campuses.
Trump’s nominee as ambassador to Jerusalem, Mike Huckabee, is also a hawkish figure. A prominent leader in the pro-Israel evangelical Christian movement, he also advocated the forcible displacement of Palestinians during Israel’s war on Gaza. In October 2023 he said: “If the so-called Palestinians are so loved by the Muslim nations of the world, why won’t any of those nations at least offer to give temporary refuge to their brothers and sisters in Gaza?” In June 2024 he said: “There’s no valid reason to have a ceasefire with Hamas.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump plans to significantly expand sanctions to severely limit Iran’s oil revenue, which the US Energy Information Administration estimated as worth $144 billion between 2021 and 2023, with $34 billion so far in 2024.
However, questions remain about how this strategy - aimed at supporting Israel and curtailing Iran’s daily exports of 1.7 million barrels of oil - might influence Russia’s vital oil sales. Some argue such a policy will benefit Russia. According to Matt Gertken, chief strategist of geopolitical and US political strategy at BCA Research, “If the global market suffers an even more significant shortage or bottleneck, then the fact that the Russian supply can still access that market means that it’s quite good for Russia because they gain pricing power,”
Iranian reaction
Government officials and advisors of supreme leader Ali Khamenei claim they had expected a Trump victory, adding that US-Iran relations during the Biden/Harris administration were just as bad as the Trump era. However, everyone in Iran expects new sanctions and the rate of the dollar shot up in the first hours of November 6.
That said, some within the Iranian regime believe Russia may intervene on behalf of the Islamic Republic and, given Trump’s desire to associate himself with “historic events”, he might even consider entering discussions about a nuclear deal with Iran.
Meanwhile, cyber wars between Iran and Israel continue. A hacker group, reportedly linked to Iran, has exposed sensitive information on prominent Israeli figures, including a nuclear scientist and a former high-ranking defence official. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports that the group claims to have accessed over 50 gigabytes of data - releasing personal photos, documents and other details, supposedly obtained by breaching the accounts of multiple senior Israeli officials. These leaks, which allegedly include images from the Soreq Nuclear Research Centre in Israel, reveal system screenshots of a particle accelerator, as well as personal details of scientists and officials.
The leaked materials include a passport photo of a former major general, who once directed Israel’s cyber operations, as well as private data on an active Israeli ambassador and a former US military attaché. The hacker group, known as Handala, has previously claimed responsibility for leaking data from another Israeli nuclear research centre and has threatened to release additional documents.
While Israel’s National Cyber Directorate and the Shin Bet security service have not commented, some US sources corroborate reports of the hack. The breach is described by Haaretz as a “psychological victory” for Iran, particularly in light of recent arrests of Israeli citizens allegedly working for Iranian intelligence. While any link between these arrests and the leak remains unclear, targeting a scientist - albeit one involved in civilian nuclear research - marks a symbolic success for Iran.
Given the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, particularly over nuclear developments, the hack raises questions about its potential as a pretext for escalating the conflict. Some speculate it might serve as grounds for Israel to seek US support for retaliatory action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, possibly through a cyberattack.
On the regional scene, when it comes to a proposed war against Iran, it looks like the fear of internal opposition in Arab countries, as well as the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic missions to neighbouring countries, has led to a completely new era.
This week Arab leaders gathered for an emergency summit in Saudi Arabia to discuss the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. They urged an immediate end to Israeli military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah. The Riyadh summit is anticipated to be influenced by the recent re-election of Donald Trump as a staunch supporter of Israel and is expected to adopt a tougher stance against Iran. However, the gathering had some surprises.
Arab world
In his opening address, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, well aware of strong anti-US, anti-Israeli sentiments in his own country and the rest of the Arab world, signalled that he does not want to be seen as a US or Israeli puppet. He called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and urged the global community to halt Israeli attacks on Palestinian and Lebanese people, and uphold “international peace and security”. His comments demanding that Israel respect Iran’s sovereignty and refrain from further attacks surprised many. Only a few years ago, there was an expectation that he would sign the Abraham Accords, normalising relations with Israel. After 13 months of Israeli genocide, the accords are truly dead and buried. Iran’s Islamic Republic and its Axis of Resistance is gaining unprecedented popularity on the Arab street and bin Salman hopes his new stance could boost his regional public image and solidify Saudi Arabia’s role in Middle Eastern power dynamics. So in the last few months, rather than remaining silent due to pressures from western allies, Saudi Arabia has explicitly opposed Israel, aligning more with Iran on this issue.
Meanwhile, Najib Mikati, Lebanon’s prime minister, called on the ‘international community’ to support his government instead of factions within the country. In a veiled reference to Iran, he also asked other nations to refrain from intervening in Lebanon’s internal affairs.
Keyvan Hosseini, writing on BBC Persian’s website, is probably correct when he states;
In a period of unprecedented anger towards Israel among Muslim communities worldwide, the ‘neutrality’ of leaders in countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE regarding the Iran-Israel conflict may prove costly, potentially damaging their legitimacy and popularity.
By addressing the ‘international community’ and appealing to global order rhetoric, bin Salman appears to be targeting western audiences. This approach is part of a broader campaign to reshape Saudi Arabia’s global image and redefine its international standing - an effort he has been actively pursuing for several years.