22.06.2023
An unofficial deal?
Iran and the United States seem to be talking about the nuclear issues again. Yassamine Mather reports on the latest round of diplomatic negotiations and manoeuvres
Over the last week or so rumours have emerged about the possibility of an informal understanding between Iran and the United States aimed at reducing “nuclear tensions”. There are reports too of Israel’s tacit agreement. So far it is only Iran that has confirmed indirect negotiations with the US, mediated by Oman. Western media are speculating about a deal being weeks away.
According to these reports, Iran would agree not to increase uranium enrichment above 60% and its allies in the region (in Syria and Iraq) will not attack American interests there. Iran also would agree a freeze on the country’s ballistic missile programme, stop the sale of drones to Russia and release three American hostages in exchange for a reduction in sanctions. The US would agree to the unfreezing of $20 billion of Iranian assets held in foreign banks, as well as allowing unhindered passage of Iranian fuel tankers in international waters.
The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, was initially quoted as saying that this was nothing like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal and Israel’s assessment was that the United States and Iran have agreed on a formula of “less for less” (less US pressure/sanctions on Iran, in exchange for limited Iranian concessions) or “freeze for freeze” (freezing US sanctions in exchange of Iran freezing some of its nuclear, ballistic activities). There were also reports that the deal might not be a formal, written document, but the proposals would be implemented as ‘goodwill gestures’ - this way avoiding a Congress vote that could be costly for Joe Biden.
Last week the Al-Monitor website quoted a source close to the Israeli prime minister claiming that Netanyahu may be willing to turn a blind eye to the Washington-Tehran deal in return for Biden’s determined push to achieve Saudi normalisation with Israel:
The Americans are more than likely toying with Netanyahu on the Saudi issue, creating expectations and illusions in order to appease him on the Iranian issue. After the agreement with Iran is reached, it will be too late to regret it. It is not certain that the administration will be able to deliver the goods in the Saudi arena ... For an Israeli prime minister to order a military attack on a country that has signed an agreement with the United States is an inconceivable scenario. On the other hand, if the understandings are not signed and anchored in an official agreement, Israel will feel much freer.1
On June 16 the Israeli paper Ha’aretz published a report confirming that the United States has given details of the negotiations to Israeli officials, while at the same indicating that Israel has the freedom of action to deal with Iran’s nuclear programme.
By June 19, according to reports of the previous day’s Israeli cabinet meeting, Netanyahu was telling ministers that his government opposes any possible understanding between the Islamic Republic and the United States and that he is against any temporary agreement between Tehran and Washington. He added that the mission of his government is “to curb Iran’s nuclear programme ... We have also said that even small and limited agreements do not help our goals and we are against them.”
So either earlier reports were false or something happened over the weekend for Netanyahu to change his mind.
Of course, we should also note US denials of any progress. Last week Reuters quoted a Washington official, who spoke on condition of anonymity: “There are no talks about an interim deal,” he said. These comments were in line with other official denials earlier in the month, which called a report that the two nations were nearing an interim deal “false and misleading”.2
Having said that, there are signs of other discussions between Iran and western leaders. News agencies reported a 90-minute call between French president Emmanuel Macron and his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, on June 10 and it is assumed that the discussions were related to the Iran nuclear negotiations. Then, nine days later, on June 19, France banned an upcoming rally of the Iranian group, Mojahedin e-Khalq (Iran’s equivalent of the ‘Moonies’), which has been held in the French capital every year since 2008, citing the risk of an attack. Paris police confirmed the decision to ban the rally, as it could “generate disturbances to public order due to the geopolitical context”.
Watering hole
When it comes to US-Iran talks, it is very difficult to decide who is telling the truth and what is going on. In the meantime, we can say with a level of certainty that the cold war between Iran and Israel is continuing. According to the Israeli cyber security firm, ClearSky, in the last few weeks a number of shipping and logistics websites in Israel have been hacked by a method known as the ‘watering hole’ attack, said to be used by Iranians. This method involves injecting harmful code, often in the form of JavaScripts, into websites used by government officials, with the code being activated every time users visit the site and gather information about them (Israeli cyber security firms are blaming the Iranian state hacker group, Tortoiseshell - also called TA456 or ‘Imperial Kitten’ - for this).
This aspect of the cold war heated up last week, when Israeli national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir used a fake news campaign, allegedly generated by Iranian hackers, to attack anti-government Israeli protestors. In this latest campaign, apparently Iranian hackers used a number of fake posts on Instagram accounts, claiming they emanated from genuine anti-government protestors, which revealed personal details of Israeli police officers. An Israeli internet watchdog, as well as the Shin Bet security agency, characterised this as a scam, but this did not stop Ben-Gvir claiming the posts were authentic and accusing protestors of endangering the lives of members of the police.
For Iran the only ray of hope regarding an end to economic isolation comes via Riyadh. Iran-Saudi relations are flourishing, with two Saudi ministerial visits to Tehran in one week. Investment minister Khalid al-Fatih arrived first, saying he was “optimistic” about the economic potential of the détente brokered by China, and adding that “Saudi enterprises could also help the Iranian market ‘catch up’ from the periods of closure and sanctions ... it is to our advantage on all fronts”. According to Iranian media, the country hopes to reach $1 billion in annual bilateral trade with Saudi Arabia in the short term and $2 billion in the medium term. However, all this is very doubtful, given the current state of US sanctions and the fact that it is not clear if the Saudis share these ambitions.
On June 17, Saudi foreign minister prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud visited Iran to open the kingdom’s embassy. He met Iranian foreign secretary Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as well as president Raisi, whom he apparently invited to Riyadh on a state visit - presumably to meet the Saudi king, Salman bin Abdulaziz and his infamous son, Mohammed bin Salman.
In Tehran Faisal said:
… mutual respect, non-interference in the two countries’ internal affairs and commitment to the United Nations Charter will be at the centre of bilateral relations going forward, with an eye on securing the interests of both nations ... I would also like to highlight the two countries’ discussions on cooperation on ensuring maritime security and reducing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.3
However, the joint press conference with both foreign ministers created its own controversy, when the Saudi prince realised he was standing in front of a picture of general Qasem Soleimani. As the leader of the Iran Revolutionary Command, Soleimani was the man credited with leading the fight against Islamic State - one of many Salafist/jihadi groups linked to Saudi Arabia. Soleimani was assassinated in an air strike in January 2020, while visiting Iraq in an attack ordered by former US president Donald Trump. Prince Faisal asked for the photo opportunity and the press conference to be moved to the other side of the foreign ministry’s ceremony room and the Iranians complied.
If Iran continues to entertain Saudi ministers, however, decisions over portraits of general Soleimani will be relatively minor matters, compared to the overall relationship between the major powers!