19.09.2007

Bellicose diversions

Yassamine Mather comments on the speculation about possible 'shock and awe' attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran's nuclear installations and other strategic targets

On Monday September 17, French prime minister Franà§ois Fillon said tensions with Iran are now "extreme". Ironically his comments came as he was trying to distance his government from a diplomatic storm caused by foreign minister Bernard Kouchner's warning on September 16 that the world should prepare for war over Iran's nuclear programme.

Last week speculation about possible 'shock and awe' attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran's nuclear installations and other strategic targets gathered pace. While French leaders launched a proposal to establish European sanctions against Iran (on top of those already implemented by the United Nations), the five permanent members of the security council plus Germany are discussing new UN sanctions.

Meanwhile, the US is waging financial war on Tehran. The US treasury has succeeded in persuading European and Japanese banks to join their American counterparts in blocking any transactions for Iranian clients. Deutsche Bank has already begun closing all accounts held by customers based in Iran - whether they are companies or individuals.

As a result of all this Iran finds it increasingly difficult to raise loans, obtain foreign currency or hold any assets offshore, as it cannot obtain dollars, euros or yen. Inevitably there is a shortage of many essential items, because the country cannot afford to import many goods. Other items have become scarce, as the monopolies importing food and medicines are targeted by sanctions.

HSBC, one of Britain's biggest banks and the world's fourth largest, said that no dollar transactions were being conducted for Iranian clients, and business links with Teheran were now minimal. Three of Japan's largest banks announced in June that no new business would be conducted for Iranian clients. Iran had avoided the US restrictions on dollar transactions by transferring assets into euros or yen. But this window is closing, as European and Japanese banks enforce the same restrictions.

All this comes at a time when a string of reports out of the US imply that the Bush administration is stepping up its plans for air strikes - not as a means of halting Iran's nuclear programme, but in order to divert attention from defeat and imminent troop withdrawals in Iraq.

It now appears that with the exception of Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - who was adamant as late as September 17 that "Iran faces no threat of war or military intervention" - everyone else is concerned about the escalation of the conflict. One Iranian blogger compared Ahmadinejad's comments to the claims of 'comical Ali' to have seen no sign of the US military, even as the tanks entered Baghdad.

It is easy to understand the logic behind US plans for attacking Iran. In the week when the military and the administration announced the coming withdrawal of over 30,000 troops from Iraq, at a time of major economic upheaval, what better way to divert attention from military, political and economic crises but the start of a new adventure? However, on the surface it seems difficult to understand the logic behind the determination of a section of Iran's leadership to encourage such a conflict.

The reality is that, faced with dissent at home, anxiety at rising prices and fear of shortages caused by declared and unannounced sanctions, the Iranian government is as eager as the US administration to divert attention from its economic failures - branding all opposition to its medieval islamic laws as part of Bush's plan for regime change from above.

Increased pressure on the population during these first weeks of Ramadan to adhere to rules forbidding eating and drinking in public during daylight has antagonised large sections of the population, who in this third decade of islamic rule have become very cynical of fasting and openly defy or challenge such laws (as shown by the Iran Khodro workers' leaflet, which we reproduce below).

Contrary to the regime's intentions, attempts at silencing all opposition using the threat of war has backfired. Most Iranians are becoming increasingly impatient with the regime, blaming its 'adventurist' policies for sanctions, shortages and the threat of war. In fact, despite severe repression, the number of public protests has increased over the last few months, with many Iranians blaming the regime as much as the US for the hardships they face in their daily life.

In addition to the threat of renewed protests by car workers, teachers have announced they will resume their strikes and demonstrations, as the new Iranian school year starts on September 22, and thousands of workers in the Neyshekar Haft tape plant went on strike for three days last week.

In other protests journalists have published an open letter criticising the arrest of their colleagues, and women's organisations have launched a new campaign against proposed changes to the Family Protection Law. According to women activists inside Iran, the new legislation legitimises sighe, or temporary marriages, causing increasing anxiety and insecurity for both married and unmarried women.