25.07.2007

Blow against military schemes

Esen Uslu analyses the July 22 general election in Turkey

The July 22 general election in Turkey resulted in an overwhelming victory for the AKP (Justice and Development Party). The soft islamist AKP increased its share of the vote by 12.4% compared to the 2003 elections. Almost every second person voted for the AKP - it picked up 46.6% of all the votes cast (the turnout was 84%). This translates into 61% of the seats in parliament - 340 out of 550.

The CHP (Republican People's Party) - in effect the representative of the military-civilian bureaucracy's tutelage over the political process - was unable to make any significant gains despite joining forces with the DSP (Democratic Left Party) and despite great efforts to drape itself in the flag of nationalism. The CHP increased its share by a mere 1.5% and got 20.9% of the vote and 112 seats.

The nationalist-racist right, the MHP (Nationalist Action Party, a remnant of the infamous Grey Wolves) managed to increased its vote by 6% by campaigning with a hangman's noose. The MHP got 14.3% of the votes and so was the third party to surpass the 10% threshold for parliamentary representation, with 71 seats.

The vote of the smaller rightwing parties, who were vying with the CHP to be regarded as the true representatives of military-civilian bureaucracy, totally collapsed. The leader of the DP (Democratic Party), which was formed after the recent military intervention through the merger of the ANAP (Motherland Party) and DYP (True Path), promptly resigned. As he has now lost his parliamentary immunity, he will stand trial for his role as former head of the security directorate in the creation of death squads.

'Independents' elected

The representatives of the Kurdish DTP (Democratic Society Party), succeeded in bypassing the undemocratic 10% threshold, which applies to parties, by campaigning as independent "candidates of a thousand hopes". The DTP will have either 23 or 24 seats - one electoral region is undergoing a recount. Either way, by winning at least 20 seats the Kurdish MPs will be entitled to form a parliamentary group, with the additional rights that entails. The DTP leader, Ahmet Türk, is among the newly elected 'independent' MPs.

Another is the leader of ODP (Freedom and Democracy Party), who responded to overwhelming calls to stand as an independent in the first electoral region of Istanbul. He must work closely with the DTP MPs if he wishes to maintain the momentum. However, the left's attempt to carry out joint campaigning encountered some difficulty - in the second electoral region of Istanbul two independents, one from the left, stood against each other after a joint campaign proved impossible. As a result of this lack of cooperation, although their joint vote would have been enough to win, the seat was lost to the MHP candidate.

Three other independents were also elected. One of them is a former prime minister who was found guilty of corruption by the supreme court, but made use of the opportunity provided by a recent amnesty to stand. Another is the leader of BBP (Greater Unity Party - another successor to the Grey Wolves) who opted to stand as an independent, as his party had no chance of achieving 10%. The total vote for 'independents' was 5.4% and they will have around 5% of the seats in parliament.

In the third electoral region of Istanbul the independent candidate was Sebahat Tuncel, who has been in jail since last autumn awaiting trial on charges of being a member of the PKK. The court refused to release her for the campaign, which was carried out in her absence as a joint effort of the left and Kurdish nationalists. She won comfortably and was released thanks to parliamentary immunity.

Among the Kurdish 'independents' there are eight women, including Aysel Tugluk, one of Abdullah Öcalan's lawyers, who has been barred from representing him. To date she has been charged on 19 counts of being a member of, or aiding and abetting, the PKK. She was cleared of one of those charges, but the rest of the cases were ongoing. Now they should be suspended on the basis of the immunity rules.

Semdin Sakik is another of the successful 'independents'. Thirteen years ago, together with other Kurdish MPs, his parliamentary immunity was removed and he was forcibly taken from the chamber. He and his friends were arrested at the gates of parliament and they spent long years in jail. On his election he said: "Nobody is entitled to prejudge us. Our people were hard done by and we wanted to represent them. However, we have also changed over the years: we will try our best to represent the whole population."

Vote against junta

The general pattern of voting suggests that a large part of the unexpected support for the AKP represented the resentment felt by the general population against the military after its intervention earlier in the year. There was recognition that there had been an attempt to rig the election to achieve the 'civilian' overthrow of the government on behalf of the military. There had been a psychological operation, run by people with years of experience and an established network, who had tried to whip up nationalist/racist/anti-Kurd fervour among the population.

The huge demonstrations organised by the military's civilian fronts just before the presidential crisis and subsequent general election managed to mobilise a huge section of the population. Yet during the election campaign it became apparent that the military was preparing the ground for a CHP-MHP coalition government. Both parties increased their vote, but this represented only a small proportion of those huge demonstrations. Meanwhile, the military effect also served to focus opposition on the only viable alternative, as seen by large section of the population: the AKP.

Yet, while it was seen to be standing firm against junta threats, the AKP government has adopted more traditional centre-right than islamist positions. Prime minister Erdogan used to recite poems like: "The mosques are our barracks; the minarets are our bayonets; the domes are our helmets; the believers are our soldiers." Now he appears more and more like a 'statesman' rather than an islamist activist.

The new parliament will apparently be very lively. The ultra-chauvinist MHP MPs will be sitting next to those of the Kurdish nationalist DTP. The government will not be able to muster the magical figure of 367 MPs (two-thirds) needed to elect a new president, even if the DTP decides to vote tactically in support of the AKP candidate. The threat of military intervention has not been removed.

According to a retired general, "If the presidential elections go off the rails, the armed forces would again intervene." This gives a clear message to the government: find a compromise candidate for president instead of AKP foreign minister Abdullah Gül.

Many problems - not least the urgent economic issues that demand immediate attention - were put on hold for the duration of the election. They will quickly return to haunt the government if they are not tackled. However, in order to do so, the islamists must find a modus vivendi acceptable to the military. And a very large section of the army is poised on the Iraqi border ready for an incursion into Kurdistan.

Yes, supporters of the junta got a bloody nose in the elections. However, the crisis is not over yet.