27.02.2025
From powerhouse to powderkeg
AfD was the big winner but Die Linke got a real boost too. Carla Roberts does not rate the chances of the centre holding for much longer
If we are to believe most commentators, 20.5% of voters in Germany (just under 10.3 million people) have just voted for “fascism”. Socialist Worker identifies a “fascist surge”. Christine Buchholz, a former MP of Die Linke and a member of the SWP’s German section (currently named Sozialismus von Unten, seemingly choosing a new name for every new political turn) writes that the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has “over a few years developed from a right-wing populist party with a fascist wing, to becoming an outright fascist party”.
In order to “stop fascism”, the comrades have set up Aufstehen Gegen Rassismus, which does not just want to go on demonstrations, but argues that “the broad street protest must hit the party directly”. Not with baseball bats, we should add, but “with a more militant blockade movement”.1 The comrades are basically trying to stop AfD members going to party meetings. To put it mildly, if these were really “fascists”, surely we would have to consider something a touch more “militant” than sitting down on our arses in front of them.
While there are a fair number of eccentrics and right-wing nut jobs in the AfD, it is not a “fascist party”. There are no fascist gangs roaming the streets. The AfD does not organise hit squads to break up meetings of trade unionists or communists (not that there are many). In fact, most AfD supporters and voters tend to be rather quiet about their affiliation - so overwhelming is the establishment’s ongoing taboo.
Firewall
The so-called Brandmauer (firewall) has been shown to be not very solid at all. While shouting about ‘fascists’, most political parties in Germany have moved rapidly to the right, adopting policies to further restrict asylum rules while promising to radically reduce migration. All in order to try and stop the rise of the AfD. To no avail, as the election results have shown - unsurprising really, as the establishment parties have proven that the AfD is in fact ‘right’ about the issue.
Although the AfD is perceived as the main winner of the election, it will not be allowed to join a government anytime soon - ideal conditions for the party to grow some more, of course. With 28.6% of the vote, the CDU/CSU might have come first, but with a considerably lower vote than expected. In all likelihood it will now form a ‘grand coalition’ with the SPD, the chief loser of the election, which experienced its worst ever result (16.4%).
The Green Party might be asked to join, too, but if anybody believes that might push the government to the left, think again. It too jumped on the anti-foreigner bandwagon, with its leader Robert Habeck publishing a nasty 10-point-plan on how to reduce migration. Add to that its role as the most enthusiastic war party in the previous government coalition and it explains why it was punished at the election with 11.6% of the vote (down by 3.1%). Habeck has since resigned the party leadership and is considering not taking up his parliamentary post.
We had hoped Sahra Wagenknecht would take similar ‘responsibility’ for the performance of her party, BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), which went from about 20% in the polls when it first split from Die Linke, to narrowly missing getting into parliament. So keen was she to catch up on the march to the right that she tried to do one better, proposing a “national referendum” on migration, which she hoped would reduce “the influx” from the current 500,000 to 50,000 a year. In the process, she and the other BSW MPs voted with the conservative CDU and the AfD to limit the right to asylum.
With the BSW result as close as it was - with 4.972% of the vote, the party failed to clear the 5% hurdle to get into parliament by a mere 13,400 votes - it is perhaps no surprise that the BSW is likely to continue on its rightwards march. Wagenknecht is in fact considering “a legal challenge” to the election result. The reason? There are 260,000 Germans who live abroad and because of the nature of a snap election, many of them did not receive their ballots in time. Wagenknecht’s hope that those would have changed the balance seems entirely misplaced: are people who have made the conscious decision to leave Germany more or less likely to support a nationalist-populist party? Well, you ask the question …
Linke envy
Many BSW supporters will now look at their former home, Die Linke, with some envy, after it jumped from 3% in the polls just a few weeks ago to a thumping 8.8%. This was due to the party moving (marginally) to the left in the few months before the elections, which partially became possible because of the departure of Wagenknecht and a dozen right-wingers in Berlin.
The new Linke leadership has come out with a firm (and new) commitment against weapons exports to Ukraine and Israel and a (left-liberal) stance of “solidarity” with refugees and migrants. And, for the first time ever, the party stood on an election manifesto that committed the party to stay in opposition. That truly is unheard of for Die Linke - but, we should say, does not extend to participation in local or regional government: the party currently props up the regional governments of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Bremen.
In Berlin, the party surprisingly came first, with almost 20% of the vote. This despite the fact that in the last regional elections, in 2023, the party achieved only 12% and was kicked out of the governing coalition. Perhaps many of those disappointed with Die Linke’s performance as loyal managers of local capitalism felt that they finally had a reason to vote for them again.
The pull to the right will be immense. Yes, a few of the most right-wing Linke MPs are now retiring, somewhat reducing the influence of the pro-Israel ‘Anti-Deutsche’ trend. However, it is still there and will continue to stop the party from clearly standing in solidarity with Palestine. The party continues to hold a ridiculous ‘bad apples on both sides’ position, calling for an increasingly non-sensical ‘two-state-solution’. But at least it is not in open solidarity with Israel anymore.
Die Linke is now particularly popular with young people. Among the under-25s, it came first with 25% of the vote, followed by the AfD with 21%. A gender break-down shows that it was, in fact, young women who are overwhelmingly on the left: 35% voted for Die Linke, followed by 14% for the AfD. Different among young men though: 15% voted left, but 26% voted for the AfD, making it the most popular party in that demographic.
Those in Britain running the new Collective party-to-be will look at the success of Die Linke with great interest - but would do well to remember that the party firmly commits itself to “overcoming capitalism” and fighting for “democratic socialism” (whatever that means), while Collective has not even started to discuss its programme. Plus, Die Linke allows open and permanent political factions to organise - which puts it miles ahead of the current state of Collective, where Karie Murphy (Jeremy Corbyn’s former right-hand woman) seems to hold veto rights on everything.
It is no surprise that many disgruntled Green Party and SPD supporters did not just vote for Die Linke - they also joined. Membership numbers have shot up from just over 50,000 in 2022 to currently 91,088, with the healthy-ish average age of 43.2 “A record number”, rejoices the Linke leadership - which means they are not counting the membership figures of its forerunner parties, PDS (which had around 100,000 members in 1992) or, indeed, the SED, the ‘official communist’ party of East Germany, which had around 3 million in the late 80s. But then, the party really has changed quite dramatically. While it used to be immensely popular in the east and only achieved marginal support in the west, this has now evened out almost entirely.
Fight ‘fascism’
Which brings us back to the AfD. It has been particularly successful in the east of Germany, where it came first in a staggering 45 of the 48 constituencies. It won 38.6% of the vote in the federal state of Thuringia, for example. The BSW too fared much better in the east.
The reason for the success of the AfD, especially in the east, is, of course, the economy - in a direct and an indirect sense. The issue of migration is, in reality, just a reflection of a much bigger problem. The state of international capitalism and the stagnating global economy is hitting Germany particularly hard, because, in addition to higher interest rates and declining exports, it has also been Ukraine’s biggest financial supporter in Europe.
The billions of Euros spent on the Ukraine war have made the dire, post-Covid economic situation ten times worse. German industry has suffered greatly from the CIA-directed sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2, which would have supplied the country with much-needed, cheap energy. Instead, energy prices have doubled and continue to rise. 250,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost and many more are threatened. Even the mighty German car industry is crumbling.
In addition to that, many people in the east still see themselves as being ‘on the losing side’ of the unification of 1989 - which in reality was an annexation and is very much perceived as such, even among young people. This is a fertile ground for the rise of right-wing populism, irrationality and fear of ‘the other’.
When questioned about their economic situation, 39% of those who consider themselves in a “bad place” voted for the AfD. 85% of AfD voters think “the situation in Germany is unjust”. 34% of the unemployed support the AfD. Most worryingly, among those who identify themselves as “workers” (as opposed to “employees”), the AfD is the strongest party with 38%.3
So while the national and regional AfD leadership might appeal to, and are comprised of, members of the petty-bourgeoisie (self-employed, accountants, small business owners, etc), it is clearly also very attractive to those who see themselves as ‘left behind’. Even if it were true that the AfD leadership are “Nazis”, does that mean we should write off those who voted for them?
To simply shout “fascists” at AfD supporters is clearly the wrong approach. It shows that the SWP and other similar groups have no strategy to win over the majority of the working class. If the principled left got its act together internationally, it could actually provide some coherent answers to the problems that many people are currently facing.
Capitalism is in total disarray. And with ‘King Donald’ rewriting all the rules in an attempt to bolster US hegemony, worse is yet to come. Especially if Germany’s new government really insists on egging on the pointless war in Ukraine. This has less to do with the war itself - which in any case could not have continued for long without US support - but the future of Europe.
The government will have to decide - and soon - what to do about Trump and his pursuit of a weak Europe. “Germany must turbo charge Europe in opposition to Trump”, demands the Guardian. But will Friedrich Merz really rebel against Trump and, for example, continue to pump money into Ukraine? Backing the war in Ukraine will also not go down well with many in Germany. With the AfD being the most outspoken opponent, their support could substantially increase.
Will the new government be pushed into reviving the old idea of a European state with a European army? That would not only set up a confrontation with the mighty USA - the contradictions within the EU countries would become ever more profound.
Simply giving in to Trump and pulling out of Ukraine will make the new government look like a total pushover and the sacrifices of the last three years entirely pointless. It would also show that the AfD was ‘right’ again. Germany has gone from Europe’s powerhouse to its powderkeg.