07.11.2024
Threat to nuclear sites increases
Though Trump is only president elect he is already changing the politics of the Middle East. Things have become even more dangerous, says Yassamine Mather
Predictions regarding the future of the Iran-Israel conflict are becoming surreal. One minute we heard that Iran was going to attack Israel the day after the US elections and the next minute a “reliable” source told journalists that Israel was going to launch a preemptive attack. Others contemplate that the United States might also participate in this attack. There are now claims that Iran will not attack if there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
We are bombarded with all this as ‘news’, coming from contradictory but “reliable” sources. Undoubtedly, it is an integral part of the psychological warfare between the two sides, being fought through the media.
Having said that, it does appear as if Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has taken a more concrete stance, compared to the days following the Israeli attack. In his first speech following Israel’s initial attack on October 27, Khamenei did not comment on whether there would be a response. Instead, he seemed to delegate responsibility for the next steps to other officials. Now it looks like he has changed his mind.
One reason could be that the extent of the damage caused by the attack has become clearer, though Iranian officials have not publicly acknowledged this. Another reason could be concerns about Hezbollah’s weakness and reports that the Shia group’s main concern is its future in Lebanese politics. There are reports that Hezbollah is considering accepting a ceasefire and that remaining a member of the ‘axis of resistance’ is no longer a priority for the organisation’s current political leadership.
In a public speech held on the eve of the 45th anniversary of the hostage-taking at the American embassy in Tehran, Khamenei said: “The enemies, both the Zionist regime and the United States of America, will receive a crushing response regarding what they are doing to the Iranian nation and the resistance front ... all necessary actions, whether in terms of military, armaments or political measures, are underway.” Regarding a potential response by Iran to Israel, he said: “The issue is not merely about revenge. It’s a matter of a logical action, a confrontation aligned with religion, ethics, Sharia and international laws.”
Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), also issued a warning to Israel and the US in a message published on November 4, stating that they would receive a “crushing response” from the “Resistance Front” and Iran.
The Wall Street Journal, citing officials from Iran and Arab countries, reported that Iran plans a response to Israel’s recent strikes involving “stronger” weapons. According to the report, Iran informed Arab diplomats that its military will “participate” in future operations in response to the loss of four soldiers and a civilian due to Israeli attacks. An unnamed Iranian official stated that parts of this response might be launched from Iraq, likely targeting Israeli military infrastructure, and that it will be “more intense than previous attacks”.
This week we also had news that the Biden administration has sent several B-52 strategic bombers to the Middle East, a day after the Pentagon announced they were being sent as a “warning” to Iran, The Central Command of the United States of America (Centcom) also confirmed the arrival of these bombers in a message on November 3. There is no information about the exact number and location of these bombers.
Open options
In addition, we have had reports that Israel is keeping its options open, regarding a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. According to last week’s Economist,
Iran has long operated four batteries of the Russian-made S-300 air-defence system. In April, after another Iranian missile barrage, Israel neutralised one by destroying its target-engagement radar. Israeli sources suggest that the three remaining systems were taken out on October 26. Satellite images seen by The Economist and analysed by Chris Biggers, an imagery expert who used to work for America’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, show evidence of a destroyed radar at Eslamshahr to the south-west of Tehran. Israel also hit a variant of the long-range Iranian-made ‘Ghadir’ radar at Ilam on the country’s western border, says Mr Biggers.1
There is consensus that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, deeply buried in bunkers, requires US assistance, however, Israelis claim the damage inflicted on Iran’s air defences in late October improves their chances. Both Democrats and Republicans seem committed to supporting Israel in any attack against Iran. The Biden administration decided to send B-52 bombers and also dispatched ‘Terminal High Altitude Area Defense’ missiles to Israel. Donald Trump has already suggested that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities: “That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” (With Trump’s victory, we can expect Israel to get carte blanche for new air raids on Iran.)
Inside Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is facing more challenges. On November 3, an Israeli court eased a gagging order on a case involving leaked classified information, reportedly connected to one of the prime minister’s media advisors. Critics claim the leaks were intended to politically shield Netanyahu, as ceasefire negotiations with Gaza faltered.
Netanyahu, who has denied any wrongdoing, downplayed the incident and publicly supported lifting the gag order. He insisted the advisor involved “never participated in security discussions, was not exposed to or received classified information, and did not take part in secret visits”.
The court permitted the disclosure of the central suspect’s identity: Eli Feldstein, whom Israeli media identified as one of Netanyahu’s media advisors. Reports indicate Feldstein may have leaked information to two European media outlets, although he may not have been formally employed or security-cleared. Feldstein, who joined Netanyahu’s advisory team shortly after the October 7 2023 attacks, had previously advised far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Three other suspects remain unnamed in the investigation, which reportedly concerns leaks to outlets including the London-based Jewish Chronicle and Germany’s Bild. The Chronicle article, later discredited and withdrawn, suggested Hamas planned to evacuate hostages through Egypt, while Bild claimed Hamas prolonged the talks as psychological warfare against Israel. Many Israeli media outlets and observers expressed doubts over the articles, which seemed to bolster Netanyahu’s position in negotiations and lessen his liability for any collapse.
The articles emerged as Netanyahu was advocating ongoing Israeli control over the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border - a demand Hamas rejected, accusing Netanyahu of undermining talks mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt. The leaks and media reports provided a counter-narrative amid mounting domestic criticism, particularly from families of hostages who saw Netanyahu as responsible for the failed negotiations. The public outcry peaked in early September, marked by widespread protests and calls for a general strike after Hamas killed six hostages during an Israeli operation.
Psychological
A court document confirmed an ongoing investigation by the police, military and the Shin Bet intelligence agency, describing the case as potentially harmful to “sensitive information and sources” and detrimental to Israel’s objectives in the Gaza conflict. The leak led to scandal within the Jewish Chronicle, with several prominent columnists resigning over the discredited article. The newspaper retracted the articles and distanced itself from the freelance journalist responsible.
Netanyahu cited the Bild article in discussions with his cabinet, asserting that it revealed Hamas’s psychological tactics to pressure Israel. However, he faced criticism suggesting the leaks were politically motivated to stall hostage negotiations.
Netanyahu, who is currently on trial in three separate corruption cases involving alleged favours to media moguls for favourable coverage, has dismissed the leak controversy. His office claimed that the disclosed document supported efforts to retrieve hostages and did not disrupt negotiations. In contrast, critics argue that the case could represent a significant breach of national security and raises suspicions that Netanyahu’s administration may have acted against reaching a hostage agreement. Yoav Limor, a columnist in the pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom newspaper, called it “one of the gravest affairs Israel has ever known”, suggesting it may reveal actions by Netanyahu’s office counter to Israel’s war objectives.
In the last two weeks, Israeli security services have also reported the arrest of seven individuals in occupied East Jerusalem, accused of planning attacks supposedly under Iranian orders. According to Shin Bet and the police, the suspects aimed to assassinate a senior Israeli scientist and a city mayor. They were also reportedly instructed to bomb a police car and throw a grenade at a home, with a promised payment of 200,000 shekels (around $53,000).
Investigators claim a 23-year-old man led the group, allegedly recruited by Iranian operatives and responsible for enlisting six others for the mission. Local media reported that he confessed to engaging in “terrorist activities” for purely financial reasons. Two young Israeli women, who appeared in front of Israeli TV cameras as ‘spies’, also seemed to be motivated by money. They are all Jewish immigrants from Azerbaijan living in the Haifa area. The group is suspected of conducting approximately 600 espionage missions, including sharing intelligence on military locations and energy infrastructure. Last week, four Israeli soldiers lost their lives in a drone strike launched by Hezbollah, targeting an army base near Binyamina in northern Israel - security services report that this base was among the locations the group had previously monitored. While it is not uncommon for Iran to try recruiting local operatives, the involvement of Israeli Jews in such activities is to say the least very rare.
In a bit of political grandstanding, culture and sports minister, Miki Zohar, a Likud member, has called for Israel to impose the death penalty on those convicted of treason during times of war. Israel’s penal code already includes capital punishment, of course, but only for exceedingly rare cases, treason being one of them. The kidnapped Nazi Adolf Eichmann was one of only two people executed by the Israeli state in over 75 years.
Then on November 5 Netanyahu dismissed defence minister Yoav Gallant, citing a “fracturing of trust” due to “significant gaps on how to conduct the war” and adding that “these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions [by Gallant] that went against government and cabinet decisions”. Israel Katz, the current foreign minister, will step in as the new defence minister, while Gideon Sa’ar, a minister without portfolio, will assume the role of foreign minister.
The dismissal was praised by Ben-Gvir, who commented: “… with Gallant still deeply trapped in his conceptions, it is impossible to achieve a complete victory.” Gallant responded by claiming his dismissal was the result of a dispute over three things: the issue of ultra-Orthodox military service, the abandonment of hostages in Gaza, and the need for an official inquiry into Hamas’s October 7 attack.2
Yair Golan, who heads Israel’s new centre-left party, the Democrats, took to X to call for a general strike and urged Israelis to demonstrate. By the early hours of November 6 Israeli Knesset politicians were clashing with the police, amid anti-Netanyahu protests.