24.10.2024

IDF Lebanon invasion: multiple-front war

Preparations for what?

Leaked documents give us a hint about what Israel is planning to do against Iran. Meanwhile, almost unbelievably, it is readying northern Gaza for colonisation, writes Yassamine Mather

Leaked documents, allegedly from the US department of defence’s National Incident Management Systems and Advanced Technologies, provide details of Israel’s preparations for a potential military response against Iran, following its October 1 missile attack on Israel.

The documents - originally shared on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel called Middle East Spectator - contain findings from surveillance on Israel’s military activities, including its preparations at the Hatzerim airbase.¹ These preparations involve arming aircraft with two types of air-launched ballistic missiles, including the ‘Rocks’ missile developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. Another missile, codenamed ‘Golden Horizon’, is also mentioned, but remains unidentified publicly, adding to the intrigue.

The documents note Israel’s large-scale military exercises, which included refuelling aircraft and a G550 command plane, possibly simulating scenarios for an attack on Iran. This includes signs of fortifying underground bunkers for warplanes and testing missile capabilities designed to strike from long distances, while evading enemy air defences. The Blue Sparrow missile, with a 2,000-kilometre range, is among the other weapons mentioned in the leak.

Although the documents appear authentic - based on their content and the refusal of sources in Washington to deny their validity - their origin and purpose for leaking remain unclear. The leak prompted an apology from the US to Israel, suggesting diplomatic sensitivity around the information.

Timing

The documents hint at Israel’s readiness for a strategic military response, with the potential to impact its actions in both Lebanon and Iran. None of this gives any indication of the timing. However, it looks like after Beirut we should expect the bombing of Iranian territory with the full support of the current and future US administrations soon after the November 5 presidential elections.

They say, ‘Truth is the first victim of war’ and, if you only follow western media, you might get a very distorted view of the current wars in the Middle East. The Israeli paper Haaretz is sometimes a source of surprising and reliable information. Amos Harel, writing an analysis on October 21, tells us: “It is clear from the reports that the United States is closely and carefully monitoring the preparations of the Israel airforce and intelligence community concerning the plan to attack Iran, which the Israeli leadership has been threatening to implement since the Iranian ballistic missile attack on October 1.”²

The paper’s October 21 editorial reminds us in the headline that “Netanyahu’s party is clearing the path to settling Gaza”, and it states: “Anyone who thinks the idea of permanently occupying the Gaza Strip and building settlements there is the province of only a few messianists should take a look at who signed the invitation to a conference titled ‘Preparing for settlement in Gaza’.”³ It is signed by Netanyahu’s Likud.

Meanwhile, the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip is a significant blow to Hamas. However, his death in combat, accompanied by two other fighters, has already promoted him to the highest ranks of martyrdom and it is very likely that many young Palestinians, despairing of any intervention by the ‘international community’ to stop this horrendous genocide, will follow in his footsteps.

No-one but the deluded western media, prompted by imperialist governments, has any illusions that his death will bring about a ceasefire. It is Netanyahu and his government who are determined to continue this war until they have cleared northern Gaza of its inhabitants and finalised this second Nakba.

It is difficult to assess the reaction of Palestinians in Gaza to Sinwar’s death - the Arab media cannot be trusted on this issue, as they all follow the agenda of their respective paymasters in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar ...

Sections of this media reported that Palestinians were deeply saddened by the loss of a leader they considered a hero, while some Arab news sites, such as Al-Monitor found Palestinians who expressed satisfaction that Sinwar had been killed:

Muhannad al-Rais, who was displaced from Gaza City to a camp in Deir el-Balah camp in central Gaza, is relieved that Sinwar was killed. “I can’t hide my anger at Yahya Sinwar for the scourge of war he brought upon us. Since the beginning of the war, we have been paying the price. Our children are dying, our homes are being destroyed and our life has become a daily nightmare in tents. Sinwar indeed dealt painful blows to the Israeli occupation, but his extremist decisions brought us more pain and destruction.”⁴

Habiba Radwan from Khan Younis expressed the opposite view, telling Al-Monitor; “We thought Sinwar was hiding in the tunnels and didn’t care about our situation, but his death in combat created great sympathy for him among the people.”⁵ Others praised Sinwar as a martyr killed in the most dangerous place: in the Tel al-Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah - contrary to Israeli propaganda that claimed he was hiding in safe tunnels.

Iranians who take a radical anti-Israeli position, such as the signatories of the statement I referred to last week,⁶ are attacked for failing to expose the Islamic Republic’s war-mongering in the region and its repression.

Left groups

We are told we should look for and support secular left Palestinian groups. The following is what I found when I looked up these groups’ statements on Yahya Sinwar’s death.

The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine said: “The great national leader, Yahya Sinwar, was martyred while fighting until the last moment. The martyrdom of Sinwar will only be an additional incentive that drives our people and their resistance to cohesion and continuing the struggle.”
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said: “We mourn the leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ epic, and one of the prominent symbols of the Palestinian struggle.”
The Palestinian National Initiative said: “The assassination of the struggling leaders has not, and will never, break the will of the Palestinian people.”

Some leftwing secular Palestinian academics tell me that, although such organisations had good ideas and slogans, they never engaged in the daily lives of Palestinians, providing the kind of social, health, educational and services Hamas created in Gaza and Hezbollah created in south Lebanon. The obvious fact here is that they never had the kind of financial backing Hamas had - mainly from Qatar and wealthy Arab supporters - or the kind of money Iran’s Islamic Republic gave to Hezbollah before the latter could accumulate funds using its rich donors, embarking on privatisation of public services and becoming a major player in Lebanese finance and capital.

The Iranian exiled left seems obsessed with a pro-western, liberal ‘third way’. This is why they insist on equating Israel with Iran. ‘Third way’ can imply supporting a kind of apologism for Zionism.

The following is a summary of Moshé Machover’s remarks to me in a private discussions - he manages to express some of the ideas I share much better than I could:

It is, in reality, Israel as the colonial entity, not only colonising Palestine, but asserting and reinforcing regional hegemony as US subcontractor - against all the peoples of the region. The liberation of the Palestinians, as well as the historical interest of the region’s people, requires the overthrow of Israel’s Zionist-colonial regime. All the horrors of the ongoing war, no matter which ‘side’ commits them, are the consequence and responsibility of the Zionist colonial regime.

The Palestinians have the unconditional right to struggle for their liberation, by all means necessary. But they cannot achieve liberation all by themselves. Liberation can only come about by the overthrow of the Zionist regime, which is a regional task.

However, the Zionist regime cannot be overthrown by external forces alone: it requires the consent and participation of the Israeli working class. This can only come about by a socialist transformation of the region, led by its working classes, calling on the Israeli working class to join them based on common class interests. Thus, the Zionist regime can only be overthrown as part of the overthrow of all regional regimes of oppression and exploitation.

If anyone is looking for a ‘third way’, this is it: the way of socialism, led by the working class.

Obviously, Hamas - at best a blind alley - is incapable of advancing this strategy.

We cannot support Hamas, but we should refuse to denounce it in the current situation. Any atrocities committed by a colonised people are a consequence of the colonial oppression.

When it comes to Iran, yes, I do want the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. However, unlike many among the Iranian exiled left, I do not want regime change from above - and the current Israeli sponsored option is for the worst kind of regime change.

Those who mention Iran’s role in increasing conflict in the region repeat word for word what the western media tells us every day. They do not read any books or academic papers that outline the contemporary history of Iran, and they fail to realise that Iran wants ‘good relations’ with the west. It is the US that wants to keep Iran as an enemy - a rogue state. Yes, Iran has paid funds to Hamas, but it has never been the organisation’s main source of finance. Iran and Hamas have had a tumultuous relationship and there have been and there are currently some issues in the relationship between the two.

I have previously explained Hezbollah’s independent existence in Lebanon, as well as the history of the Houthis. So the idea that Iran and Israel are equally responsible for the current situation in the Middle East is a fiction created by the US and western media. The left should have nothing to do with it.

In the current situation, Iran is being threatened not just by Israel, but by the US and its allies, and is defending itself. Here there is a difference between a big gangster (Israel, backed by the US and its allies), with all its military, political and financial power, and a small gangster - a bankrupt, tinpot dictatorship.

Islands

To add insult to injury, Iran now faces a charge of illegally ‘occupying’ a few little rocky outcrops in the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates, supported by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union are together calling on Iran to give up control of the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa islands. It looks like a silly joke, but it is probably designed to open a second front against Iran.

The UAE argues that the islands were under the control of the Qasimi sheikhs during the 19th century, with these rights transferred to the UAE in 1971. They came under British control in 1921, but on November 30 1971, Iran’s shah sent the Iranian navy to take control of the islands after British forces withdrew. Iranian forces are still stationed there, with Abu Musa being the only one with a civilian population and that being under 2,000.

Of course, it is easy to see why suddenly these tiny islands have gained significance. If Iran is attacked by Israel, one of the Islamic Republic’s threats is to close the strait of Hormoz. Such a plan inevitably involves using these strategic outposts. The worrying news for Iran is that Russia and China apparently support the UAE position, leaving Iran more isolated than ever before.

None of this means we should forget the struggles of the millions of Iranians against corrupt clerical rulers. As we fight the many wars US-backed Israel has created in our region, we have to continue exposing the myth that religious fundamentalism and individual or national martyrdom will save the peoples of the Middle East. With all the death and destruction in Gaza, in Lebanon and probably soon in Iran, it is fatuous to claim that Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran’s Islamic Republic are winning. Global demonstrations, as large and radical as they are, will not on their own bring an end to these wars either.

Only the unity of the working class beyond artificial colonial borders and the overthrow of capitalism can bring peace. Again this will not happen through wishful thinking and hope that another Arab spring will automatically be led by progressive forces, capable of avoiding the challenges and failures of 2011.