11.07.2024
Reform Ltd gets five
Politics continues to move to the right, with Reform UK now having a ‘bridgehead’ of MPs, writes Eddie Ford. What happens next with the Tories, now that Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner, remains to be seen
Before the election, Nigel Farage had talked about Reform UK establishing a “bridgehead” in parliament - with an exit poll published at the end of voting suggesting that they might get 13 MPs, which would have been incredible.
Actually, Reform ended up with five seats, but that was still quite an achievement, given ‘first past the post’, which generally punishes third (or ‘insurgent’) parties. After all, this time last year the idea of it having five MPs would have sounded fairly fanciful, and only a month or so ago you would have hesitated before betting on Reform getting any more than one or two seats - Farage in Clacton and maybe the obnoxious gadfly, Lee Anderson, in Ashfield. But not only did it get five MPs, including party chair Richard Tice and Anderson himself, it picked up the third largest vote at 4.11 million, or 14.3% of the poll - beating the Liberal Democrats (3.52 million, or 12.2%), which, nevertheless, found itself with 72 MPs, thanks to the rotten electoral system.
If we had
If we had had proportional representation, then the situation would have been flipped, with Reform on 94 MPs and the Lib Dems getting 77.1 But if we had PR people would have voted differently, so this is just a thought exercise. Of course, our new prime minister is never going to change the voting system, nor will the Tories ever fight for electoral reform, though Farage, quelle surprise, has said that he would “campaign with anyone and everyone” to change the system. We in the CPGB demand proportional representation … but, as might be expected, we shall not be campaigning alongside Farage.
Now, it was widely expected, including in this publication, that Reform opinion poll support would bleed into the Tory Party as the election campaign progressed - returning to the mother party. But that did not happen - once Nigel Farage threw his hat into the ring. The rightwing vote was thereby split, making Labour a sure winner - though it has been called a “loveless landslide”, as its share of the vote was only marginally above what Jeremy Corbyn got in the last election in 2019. Maybe this would have happened even if Farage had not entered the race, but it seems doubtful - he appears to have given ‘shy Reform’ voters the courage of their convictions.
As we saw on the night, Reform’s support was too evenly spread to win many constituencies, but if we dig deeper into the statistics it is easy to see the devasting impact it had on the Tories. Of course, Reform’s previous incarnation, the Brexit Party, in 2019 stood aside in more than 300 seats previously won by the Tories, amid concerns it could split the pro-Brexit vote. But not this time, as the new party contested 630 seats across England, Scotland and Wales. Wisely, Reform focused its resources on a handful of target seats, coming second with 98, of which 89 were won by Labour - though it is worth noting that was a bit less than the 120 seats where the UK Independence Party came second in 2015. Unsurprisingly, Reform advanced most in areas where people voted ‘leave’ in the 2016 referendum: more than 70% voted Brexit in the five seats won by Reform.
A quarter of 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform, at least according to a poll conducted by Tory peer Lord Michael Ashcroft, which also suggested that the bulk of Reform’s support came from voters aged 45 and above, while it had the lowest vote share of any major party among those between 18 and 24 years old.
Reform managed to get this far, as Farage noted in his acceptance speech, without a significant infrastructure, plus only four weeks of real campaigning and hampered by a lack of finances - with the party reliant on Richard Tice for 80% of funding since 2021, amounting to £1.4 million in loans and donations, compared with the £35 million allowed for each party nationally. But Reform is hoping that traditional former Tory donors will begin to open their chequebooks, thanks to its credible election performance.
Rebellion
Following the election results, Nigel Farage vowed to build a “mass national movement” that sees Reform mounting a “proper” general election challenge in 2029: “This is just the first step of something that is going to stun all of you.” An ebullient Richard Tice talked in similar terms - “a people’s revolt was underway” and this is only “the beginning”, as “we are just warming up” - with both the leader and chair of the party saying they were now “going after the Labour vote”.
As a devoted fanboy, Nigel Farage must have been delighted by the congratulatory message he received from Donald Trump, who is likely to be US president again, as things stand. Trump stated: “Nigel is a man who truly loves his country.” Two great patriots leading a rightwing rebellion to save the nation from the ‘woke left’!
Even though it came as no surprise to absolutely anyone, given that Reform is bound to attract disgruntled refugees from the Tory Party, there were near endless reports about Reform candidates making bigoted and racist comments - including calling the former prime minister a “fucking Paki”. Responding to the fuss, Farage has insisted that Reform “will be a non-racist, non-sectarian party” - absolutely no question - “and I give my word on that”. More interestingly, at a press conference in Westminster immediately after the election, he promised that his party would “democratise itself” by allowing its 115,00 paying supporters to vote on regional branch chairs - hoping to increase participation in the party and perhaps also boost individual donations, which it desperately needs.
At the moment, of course, Reform does not allow its supporters any say or vote on its leadership or policies and is registered as a limited company (an “entrepreneurial political start-up”) with no individual membership or written constitution. Naturally, Farage is the majority shareholder, owning 53% of ‘Reform UK Party Limited’ and Tice has a holding of around one-third of the shares, while chief executive Paul Oakden and party treasurer Mehrtash A’zami each hold just under 7%. Having said that, Reform has previously admitted that its structures - or lack of them - might not be sustainable in the long term and this could be an indication of a possible change in the works.
Recently, Farage talked about Reform engineering a “reverse takeover” of the Conservative Party. At the same time, post the election, he has also said that he would not join any pact with the Tories, preferring instead to “let the Conservative Party tear themselves apart”. That may well be the case, but its future relationship with the Tories is more than likely to be determined by who emerges as its new leader.
In that respect, the defeat of Penny Mordaunt in the general election removes a key leadership contender boosting the chances of those on the right, such as Suella Braverman, and current frontrunner, Kemi Badenoch.
This brings us to the release by YouGov of the first post-election poll of Tory members about who they want as new leader.2 Badenoch is the clear frontrunner by some distance on 31% - effectively twice that of Suella Braverman and Tom Tugendhat, who are on 16% and 15% respectively. However, James Cleverly, seen by some as a potential ‘unity candidate’, has 10% and could possibly pick up support if the leadership contest gets too unpleasant.
Badenoch and Braverman have very different approaches to the Reform threat, of course - the former dismissing Farage as an attention-seeker, while the latter has argued that Farage should be welcomed into the family. Braverman has come under fierce attack very recently for using a speech in the US to describe the pride flag flown over the home office as a “monstrous thing” that symbolises “the liberal Conservatives who trashed the Tory Party” - the woke enemy within. This caused Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, to say that the party will be “in opposition for generations to come” if it choses Braverman.
Not Braverman
But what is even more interesting about the YouGov poll is that almost half of Tory members want a merger with Reform (47% in favour and 48% against, with the remainder unsure) - a finding that mirrors a similar BMG Research poll three weeks ago. Predictably, EU leavers are more than twice as likely to support a merger than remainers (59% to 25%) and - just as predictable - support for the idea increases, as one moves up the age ranges. Furthermore, support for a merger is also stronger among working class Tories than their middle class counterparts, as well as among those who backed Truss over Sunak two years ago (59% to 27%).
In which case, it is very hard to imagine a Tory leadership contender ignoring the party’s rank and file, or polls like these - but once in office that could easily change. However, with Badenoch as the bookies’ favourite the chances are that we will not see a merger, rather competition for the rightwing nationalist vote. After all, the combined vote of the Conservative Party and Reform is much bigger than Labour’s.
If Sir Keir fails to fix ‘broken Britain’, a predictable outcome, Badenoch will be hoping that Labour will prove to be a one-term government and that she will be the one who gets the keys for No10. On the other hand, a Trump victory in November and the failure of the Labour government could see yet more voters desert the establishment mainstream and set the stage for a Reform breakthrough in 2028 or 2029. Banking on a return to the centre and a revival of consensus politics would be foolish. The centre is moving ever further to the right ... as shown by Sir Keir’s government.