08.11.2001

Ireland

Sectarian patch-up

?If at first you don?t succeed ? change the rules and try again.?

It was on this basis that the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Dr John Reid, contrived to resolve the latest crisis in the peace process. But the ?resolution? itself threw into the sharpest possible relief all the intrinsic contradictions that have bedevilled the process, and the institutions to which it gave birth, ever since the inception some three and a half years ago of the Good Friday Agreement.

As we have consistently argued, far from being a solution to the problem of oppression and injustice in the Six Counties, far from addressing the genuine fears of both the catholic and the protestant working class communities as to how they might live together, the Good Friday Agreement merely institutionalised the sectarian divide. Off came the balaclavas; on came the suits. But the stubborn fact remains that, rooted in their mutually antipathetic cultures, neither side has evinced any real desire to see the survival of the artificial, cross-sectarian politics to which they committed themselves, on paper, in 1998.

Time and again since 1998, Sinn F?in has demonstrated its political acuity, both in strategy and tactics. In Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, the republican movement has produced leaders who are formidable politicians. Of course, they want to build on the significant electoral gains that they have already achieved in the north of Ireland - the next elections to the legislative assembly can be expected to see Sinn F?in become the dominant force among the catholic/nationalist population; of course, they are determined to use the Good Friday Agreement as a stepping stone for future advances. But, with the approach of a general election in the south, their sights are set on more important goals. Ultimately, the north can be left to demographics as far as they are concerned.

By contrast, the forces of unionism are split from top to bottom. On the one hand you have Ian Paisley and his Democratic Unionist Party, together with a ragbag of independent anti-agreement unionists, who, Canute-like, can be relied upon to deny the very existence of the incoming tide until it finally engulfs them. Given the polarisation of the protestant community, as evidenced by the June 7 general and local election results, no wonder that the DUP sees some hope in Paisley?s last stand. On the other hand, you have the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party around David Trimble, that has objectively seen the writing on the wall and wants to shore up the harbour defences of unionist/orange hegemony so long as they can hold out. However, the UUP is deeply divided and increasingly disoriented with its anti-agreement wing continuing to make headway. It is evidently a party ripe for disintegration.

It is against this background that recent events should be considered. In the euphoric afterglow of the decision by the Provisional Army Council of the Irish Republican Army to embark on decommissioning, the grin was back on Trimble?s face. After a cosy chat with general John de Chastelain of the Independent International Commission for Decommissioning, Trimble announced that he was ?prepared? to seek re-election as first minister of the legislative assembly - very gracious of him indeed. Lauded by the broadsheet press for his ?staunchness? - ie, the grandstanding stunt of his resignation as first minister, which had created yet another artificial crisis in the peace process in the first place - Trimble?s resumption of his role appeared to be more or less a foregone conclusion.

Not so. On Friday November 2, two UUP MLAs, Pauline Armitage and Peter Weir, upset the applecart by defecting to the DUP/unionist anti-agreement camp in the crucial vote on the restoration of Trimble?s office. This was an accident waiting to happen, and its consequences in terms of the law were potentially very serious for the future of the institutions.

According to the provisions of the Northern Ireland Act, the legal basis of the Good Friday Agreement, key votes in the legislative assembly, including, obviously, the election of a first minister and his deputy, must receive not only an overall majority of MLAs, but a majority in both of the two recognised blocs: those who have designated themselves as either unionist or nationalist - in effect, the UUP/DUP/independent unionists on the one hand, and the SDLP/Sinn F?in on the other. The votes of non-aligned members (in this case, five members of the Alliance Party and two members of the Women?s Coalition, being legally regarded as ?others?) actually count for nothing. Their votes can never make a difference, since it is always the winning of unionist and nationalist majorities that is decisive - a perfect illustration of the institutionalisation of sectarianism.

Trimble and SDLP leader-designate Mark Durkan gained over 70% of the vote on November 2, with the nationalist bloc voting unanimously in their favour, but crucially the defection of Armitage and Weir meant that they failed to gain a simple majority from the unionist bloc. In this situation, the secretary of state was confronted by two options: either once again to employ the legal loophole of a temporary, overnight suspension of the institutions, creating a six-week breathing-space for further negotiations, or to call new elections to the legislative assembly in advance of the 18-month deadline within which they must in any event take place.

Dr Reid had already used the theatrical 24-hour suspension tactic in the wake of Trimble?s July 1 resignation stunt, but on this occasion he chose not to do so. Why? Apparently because further use of this stratagem had specifically been precluded, as part of the British government?s deal with the IRA over decommissioning. Self-evidently, given the results of the June 7 polls, both Sinn F?in and the DUP were keen to see fresh elections as soon as possible.

Hence, enter the world of Alice in Wonderland politics, in which, by temporarily agreeing to redesignate themselves as ?unionists?, the Alliance Party could save the day for Trimble and Westminster, and in the process win concessions whereby in future the votes of the non-aligned parties in the LA might actually count for something.

In terms of section 16 of the Northern Ireland Act, the DUP had an arguable case that Reid had acted unlawfully by ignoring the deadline, and that elections should be called forthwith, but the decision of Mr Justice Kerr to reject the DUP?s application for a judicial review was predictable, given the overriding political considerations. However, the Northern Ireland secretary had to concede that he ought to call fresh elections - eventually. The Alliance Party duly played its part as the backside of a pantomime horse, and the Trimble/Durkan ticket was finally endorsed, even if by the narrowest of margins.

Although the Alliance insists that it a ?cross-community? party, enjoying support from catholics as well as protestants, in actual fact it is of course just as much in favour of the status quo - the union - as the UUP and DUP. So its temporary redesignation was hardly out of step with the reality.

There was a fitting denouement to this farce, when Trimble - no trace of the grin this time - announced his victory in front of the TV cameras with a background cacophony of jeering calls, denouncing him as a ?traitor? and a ?cheat?, from overfed DUPers in ill-fitting suits. These jostling, fist-shaking representatives of the anti-agreement camp, huddled round Paisley, will ensure that the proximate future of the executive, the legislative assembly and its associated institutions will be far from peaceful.

Morons they appear to be, morons indeed they are, but the concerns they articulate find a powerful resonance in the British-Irish community as a whole: witness the poll in the loyalist Belfast Telegraph last week, which showed that less than one in three unionists believe general de Chastelain?s assurances that the IRA has actually undertaken ?a significant act of decommissioning?.

According to transcripts of their conversation with the de Chastelain released by Armitage and Weir, if they can be believed, only one arms dump has so far been decommissioned and there are no firm plans for further ?disarmament? by the IRA. As Armitage put it to the general, ?It appears to me that the reason you are not being allowed to tell us how much has been destroyed is because it is so paltry that it would be embarrassing. Would I be right?? In response, the general is reported to have said, ?I would never argue against a woman?s intuition? (The Times November 3).

Significantly, the deadline for Trimble?s re-election coincided precisely with the moment at which the Royal Ulster Constabulary ceased to exist, and became the Police Service of Northern Ireland, a development which Armitage claims was ?too much? and triggered her decision to vote against her UUP leader. No doubt Peter Weir, an inveterate anti-agreement unionist, would say the same, though ever since his deselection as the UUP candidate for North Down, preceded by his loss of the UUP whip in 1999 for disloyalty, he has effectively been a defector in waiting.

Commenting on the latest debacle, one British government official is quoted as saying: ?What is needed now is 18 months of calm and steady power-sharing government to bed the system into place? (The Sunday Telegraph November 4). From the Elysian fields of Whitehall, such a prospect may seem not just desirable, but achievable. However, Tuesday night?s fracas would seem to portend a rather different future. Level-headed unionists probably recognise that further destabilising the legislative assembly and the institutions of devolved government will only play into the hands of Sinn F?in by ratcheting up the political price for future concessions by the IRA.

It is Sinn F?in, of course, that will turn out to be in a win-win situation. As the peace process stumbles from crisis to crisis, the party continues to garner support. It already represents the de facto voice of the republican/nationalist community in the Six Counties, and is set to make gains in the south in next year?s Irish elections. While it portrays itself as the staunch defender of the Good Friday Agreement, in reality Sinn F?in has nothing to gain from attempting to make the Northern Ireland institutions work.

From our perspective, the events of recent days have only served to underline the need for a genuine democratic solution, a solution that embraces both the catholic-Irish and British-Irish in a working class-led struggle for a united Ireland in which the minority would have the right to self-determination. Only in this way can sectarian antagonisms be revealed as facets of our common alienation and enslavement under the capitalist system.

Michael Malkin