05.09.2007
A precarious truce
What does the election of Abdullah Gul as president mean for Turkey? Esen Uslu analyses the new situation
Following the turmoil of the spring, the summer brought the victory of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) in the (slightly) early general elections in Turkey.
The results, which were as unwanted as they were unexpected by the nationalist-racist-statist-Ataturkist bureaucracy and army top brass, as well as by the so-called social democrats, brought them face to face with a shocking prospect: an islamist president! All the more so if we remember that the turmoil of the spring, on the face of it, was provoked by the attempt to prevent the same man, the former prime minister and foreign minister, from being elected by the national assembly to the presidency, on the grounds of his islamist credentials.
The operation staged by the state bureaucracy and army to prevent this outcome entailed the winning of a ruling by the constitutional court that a quorum of two thirds of MPs was required for the opening of a national assembly session to elect the president. A new, very stringent rule, which is not present in the constitution, was thus invented.
The constitution clearly states that in the first two rounds a two-thirds majority is required to elect a president. If a candidate fails to get such a majority, a simple majority is sufficient in subsequent rounds. However, if the national assembly fails to elect a president after four rounds, it must be dissolved and immediate elections held.
By changing the quorum rules, the constitutional court made it impossible to convene a session of the national assembly in the first place, should the opposition parties opt not to attend. Of course, this meant that the third round, where the AKP's simple majority would come into play, could never be reached. The CHP (Republican People's Party), previously the sole opposition party in the national assembly and a member of the Socialist International, promptly followed the lead of the bureaucracy and army top brass and boycotted the sessions.
AKP's dual response
The AKP government responded in two ways. One the one hand, it initiated the process to amend the constitution in order that the president be elected by popular vote; on the other, it called a snap general election.
During the election campaign, the national assembly met to amend the constitution. As the AKP did not have the necessary two-thirds majority to get it through the assembly forthwith, the caretaker president (whose term had lapsed, but continued in office in the absence of a replacement) vetoed the amendment and called for it to be the subject of a referendum set for October 21.
Of course in those days of thrust and counter-thrust, nobody paid much attention to the details. The text of the constitutional amendment stated that the rules would be applicable to the election of the 11th president of the republic (the next).
However, following the general election won by the AKP, the MHP (Nationalist Action Party) - whose campaign had featured a hangman's noose at election rallies (the MHP said it would hang Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan if it was elected) - promptly stated it would attend the sessions of the national assembly for the presidential vote, but vote against the AKP candidate. However, the MHP's presence would ensure the necessary quorum, whichever way it voted
That, of course, spoilt the CHP's game. Its leaders bitterly remarked that the rope the MHP had held up at its rallies was actually a tow-rope for hauling the AKP out of a hole. The Kurdish DTP (Democratic Society Party) group - which consisted of deputies elected as 'independents' to get round the electoral law, who then 'rejoined' the DTP after the elections - followed suit.
Consequently, the AKP managed to get its candidate elected in the third round through its own votes. So Abdullah Gul became the 11th president - even while preparations were being made for a referendum to decide whether the people should elect the 11th president! Such a perfect thing, democracy Turkish style!
Bureaucracy's convulsions
Shocked by the results of the elections despite the massive anti-islamist rallies they had organised, the bureaucrats and army top brass were unable to respond forcefully (although the chief of general staff gave his Victory Day message a couple of days early to coincide with the election of Gul). This speech made the intentions of the military clear enough:
"It should not be forgotten that the Ataturk revolution had a democratic character. It overturned the sultanate and caliphate and replaced them with a republic based on national sovereignty. The essence of the Ataturk revolution is a war of liberation. The Turkish nation waged that great war both against the foreign enemies desiring to occupy Anatolia and the regime of the sultanate and caliphate which collaborated with those enemies. That struggle aimed at independence from outside powers as well as national sovereignty within "¦
"As always, the Turkish armed forces will never compromise their resolved stance in performing their duty to secure and protect the republic of Turkey as a democratic, secular, social and law-based state under the guidance of the Ataturkist Thought System."
For those comrades who might have thought they were reading an old Maoist speech, I must help to decipher the hidden message behind its phrases.
This is what it basically says:
'The islamists have a hidden agenda for resurrecting the sultanate and caliphate by converting our trusted and tested state system into an undemocratic, religion-based state. They are collaborating with the foreign enemy - that is, the European Union - which is aiming to take over our country, or to split it in two. We are resolved to wage and win a civil war, if it comes to that, in order to prevent such schemes from being realised. What we say and do is guided by Ataturk's thought and is therefore divinely correct.'
This tough talk was followed by a performance of funny walks in the time-honoured fashion of Monty Python. The protocol for ceremonies attended by the president requires all military personnel to stand to attention while he walks in, salutes and takes his seat. Also any member of the military who makes a speech at such an occasion is required to stand facing the president and bow.
In the first two such meetings the chief of general staff and some other senior officers neither remained standing until the president sat down nor bowed! Such daring - the end of the world as we know it!
Of course the funny walks continued, as the civilians present performed the obligatory bowing and saluting, while member of armed forces just stood there awkwardly. As saluting on every occasion is for them a life-long habit, they were not sure what to do with their hands while undertaking their protest. Some sober-minded commentators later reminded them that in the armed forces one must salute not the man. but the rank.
Such gestures apart, the army top brass declined to take any further action for the time being. The compromise offered by the AKP was an agreement not to re-elect the former speaker of the national assembly and exclude him from government. It also brought into government a few new faces they thought would be regarded as moderate and acceptable.
The AKP says it will present a comprehensive set of amendments to the current 1982 constitution which was promulgated by the military junta and approved by an overwhelming majority in a referendum. The said constitution provides blanket immunity from prosecution for member of the junta. It also defines the terms of the Ataturkist straightjacket over state institutions.
All left opposition groups think that amending the constitution is an essential step to stop the intervention of the armed forces in political affairs. The current truce between the bureaucracy and army, on the one hand, and the islamist liberals, on the other, will face its greatest test when the AKP proposals are made public. But for the time being the truce seems to be holding.
Thorny issues
The DTP group of Kurdish nationalists in the national assembly have behaved impeccably. They even swore an oath to uphold the indivisible territorial integrity of Turkey without blinking. Many had recalled the seats left vacant in the British parliament after Sinn Féin members refused to swear a similar oath as part of their policy of 'the Armalite and the ballot box', and decided not to go along that road.
The DTP MPs, in their attempt to please everybody, buttoned up their suits and shook hands with the leaders of the Turkish nationalist MHP, who were allocated seats next to them in the assembly. This drew criticism from several quarters, including, understandably, Abdullah Ocalan himself - no doubt he could almost feel the MHP's campaigning noose around his neck.
Recently a DTP spokesperson claimed that the army used chemical weapons to kill 16 guerrillas in two different localities. That, of course, created the expected furore. The military refused to invite the DTP to Army Day celebrations on the grounds that it did not denounce guerrillas as terrorists. However, the new president has invited the DTP MPs to a banquet in the presidential palace - a new breakthrough - but yet another cause of friction between the AKP and top brass.
On external affairs, new points of conflict are expected to appear very soon. US policy towards the Iraqi government and especially towards the Kurdish regional government may provide the trigger. The AKP has stated its intention to do business with the Iraqi Kurdish regional government, while the military is vehemently against such a move.
Iran is attacking the positions of Kurdistan Free Life Party fighters (Pejak) in both Iran and Iraq (Pejak is actually an extension of the PKK). The Turkish army is keeping an approving but watchful eye on Iranian operations, and maintains the position of the best part of its operational forces on Iraqi borders, where they are ready to move in.
The economic upheaval in US financial markets has shaken Turkish markets as well, but, while they weathered the initial storm without too many losses, everybody is waiting for the next wave. Turkey's economic prosperity relies on hot money - that is, the short-term credit glut chasing higher returns. This hot money is quickly withdrawn during crises, which could well have a severe impact on the economy.
The government is following the advice of international finance capital, claiming that the economy will continue to grow, and basing all its forecasts on that assumption. We all know how shaky those forecasts are. However, the government seems unable to curb public spending on state bureaucrats and the armed forces. It recently agreed to purchase new Joint Strike Fighter aircraft without much fuss.
Meanwhile pay talks for public employees have reached the arbitration stage. The government has offered them full trade union rights as part of its raft of constitutional amendment as a sweetener for their inflation-indexed offer. The recent pay deal with Turkish Airlines, brokered by the government, suggests that above-inflation pay increases can be expected by public employees.
It seems the government is giving absolute priority to maintaining its public support at present. But its departure from strict adherence to the IMF-approved public finance budget risks denting its credit-worthiness.
In this preparatory period while it attempts to change the balance of power by curbing the ability of the bureaucrats and military to intervene in the political process, the AKP government needs to walk a tightrope.